The Prof Who Cried Aliens (It's not Aliens)

On July 1st, astronomers discovered the third-ever known interstellar object. Comet 3I/ATLAS. This is a fantastic discovery, and so many groups are looking at it. I was lucky to get a world exclusive about its possible origin last week, and my favourite quote from interviewing the researchers was this one from Professor Chris Lintott.

“We're having an enormous amount of fun. This is what I thought astronomers did when I was a kid. We found a thing, we're pointing telescopes at it and then we're arguing about it and it's just the best!”

This is exactly how I feel too: I’m sure that me and Chris are not alone! It is fun! It’s a big chunk of ice and rock likely older than the solar system, and it is quickly (and very safely) passing through our neighbourhood before continuing through interstellar space. For astronomers, it's like being at a party and pizza has just been delivered.

Obviously, you've got to have a party pooper. I sincerely do not know if this is a good strategy in terms of science communication, if discussing this in my newsletter is helping it spread… but when it’s a Harvard professor spreading bullshit for clout, I think the barn door can’t be bolted.

$Abstract from new paper that features Avi Loeb as an author: At this early stage of its passage through our Solar System, 3I/ATLAS, the recently discovered interstellar interloper, has displayed various anomalous characteristics, determined from photometric and astrometric observations. As largely a pedagogical exercise, in this paper we present additional analysis into the astrodynamics of 3I/ATLAS, and hypothesize that this object could be technological, and possibly hostile as would be expected from the 'Dark Forest' resolution to the 'Fermi Paradox'. We show that 3I/ATLAS approaches surprisingly close to Venus, Mars and Jupiter, with a probability of ≲0.005\%. Furthermore the low retrograde tilt of 3I/ATLAS's orbital plane to the ecliptic offers various benefits to an Extra-terrestrial Intelligence (ETI), since it allows the object access to our planet with relative impunity. The eclipse by the Sun from Earth of 3I/ATLAS at perihelion, would allow it to conduct a clandestine reverse Solar Oberth Manoeuvre, an optimal high-thrust strategy for interstellar spacecraft to brake and stay bound to the Sun. An optimal intercept of Earth would entail an arrival in late November/early December of 2025, and also, a non-gravitational acceleration of ∼5.9×10−5 au day−2, normalized at 1 au from the Sun, would indicate an intent to intercept the planet Jupiter, not far off its path, and a strategy to rendezvous with it after perihelion.$

Loeb has previously claimed - without evidence - that the first interstellar object ‘Oumuamua’ was an alien spacecraft. Then it was the “interstellar meteor” leaving evidence of alien tech on the ocean floor, now it’s a “pedagogical” exercise on how 3I/ATLAS could be a spacecraft.

His idea is based on the “Dark Forest” solution of the Fermi Paradox being correct. Basically, it implies we haven’t seen extraterrestrial intelligences because those who make their presence known get snuffed out by other ETs. So everyone is very very quiet. Oh, not us… Humans are accidentally loud!

This comet will be at its closest to the Sun, when we can’t observe it, simply because it will be on the other side of the Sun. Well, the paper suggests that this could allow the comet/spaceship to brake and change its trajectory so that it could come and intercept our planet mere weeks after that. I could describe the multiple physical ways why that is the most idiotic claim. However, I think the following is the simplest argument against it.

Every day, within the orbit of Neptune, there are an estimated 10,000 interstellar objects. Every day. 10,000 interstellar objects. Since 2017, we have found 3. We are not good at finding them. We will likely get better thanks to the Vera Rubin Observatory, but we are not good right now. An alien spacecraft wouldn’t have to pretend to be a comet to catch us by surprise. It wouldn’t need to be bright and visible months in advance. You would want as little interaction with light as possible, making a slow approach, constantly adapting to the solar system to be inconspicuous.

I don’t know what kind of idiot the alien admiral would have to be to make the spacecraft so easy to spot, but if they get here by Christmas, I’m sure they can expect a professorship at Harvard.